Hey folks. So Jason and I decided to do something a little unique following this year’s Oscar ceremony. We held a draft to try and predict the next 10 years of the Oscars. The idea was this: we would each select six people (five for acting and one for a non-acting category) who had been nominated but never won an Oscar to win their first Oscar in the next 10 years, and we also selected six who had never been nominated to score their first nomination in the next 10 years. Also, if a person earns their first nomination and first win in the decade, there is a bonus point awarded for that. Tiebreaker will be based on the cumulative nominations and wins of your first selection in each category. So there are a total of 12 people on each of our rosters, and whoever makes the most correct selections wins! However, we won’t know who won our competition until 2030! At which point, the loser buys the winner a drink at the first University of North Carolina football game in which we both attend that season. So, with that in mind, let’s reveal our rosters!
NOMINEES WHO WILL EARN THIER FIRST WIN
First Round: Adam Driver
Driver is one of the most in demand actors working today. He has two nominations under his belt In the past two years for BlacKkKlansman and Marriage Story, and he has a knack for pairing with talented, well respected directors. Already his resume boasts work with (chronologically) Clint Eastwood, Noah Baumbach (they have worked together 3 times to date), Steven Spielberg, The Coen Brothers, JJ Abrams, Martin Scorsese, Steven Soderbergh, Rian Johnson, Spike Lee, Terry Gilliam, and Jim Jarmusch. If Driver keeps it up, Oscar is a question of when and not if.
Second Round: Bradley Cooper
Bradley Cooper currently has a whopping 8 nominations to his name without a win (admittedly, four are for non-acting categories, but impressive nonetheless). He was nominated as an actor for Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle, American Sniper, and A Star is Born, the last of which he also wrote and directed. All eight of his nominations have come since 2013, so if he keeps that pace, I like his odds to earn Oscar glory before the 2020’s reach their end.
Third Round: Saoirse Ronan
Ronan, who as of writing this, is only 25 years old already has four acting nominations to her name, for Atonement, Brooklyn, Lady Bird, and Little Women. There seems to be no sign of her slowing down, and considering her record of collaborations with Oscar nominated directors like Greta Gerwig and Wes Anderson, I think she should be well on her way to more nominations and a win before she reaches 35.
Fourth Round: Margot Robbie
Margot Robbie has two nominations to her name so far (I, Tonya, and Bombshell), but she has also appeared in three other Best Picture nominated films (The Wolf of Wall Street, The Big Short, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), and she has shown that she wants to work with co-stars and behind the camera people that have experience making good things. Even when she does a less than great project, people generally praise her for work. I think she gets a couple more nominations and an eventual win in the next ten years.
Fifth Round: Ryan Gosling
Gosling may be my dark horse pick, considering he had the fewest nominations this decade of my five, but he has two career nominations (Half Nelson, and La La Land), and an argument can be made he should have earned more (First Man, The Nice Guys, and The Big Short among them). Gosling is fairly selective with his roles, so the lack of volume could hamper his ability to win over the next decade, but the quality is always there, even if quantity isn’t. His most six recent films have paired him with directors Damien Chazelle, Denis Villeneuve, Terrence Malick, Chazelle again, Shane Black, and Adam McKay. Of those, Black is the only won without an Oscar nomination or win. If he maintains this pattern, he could easily here his name called on Oscar night.
Sixth Round: Greta Gerwig (Directing)
So, I did have to specify that she will win for directing and not in writing, because Gerwig currently has only the one directing nomination for Lady Bird, but there was major outcry that she was snubbed for directing when it came to Little Women. Both of those movies earned screenplay nominations for her, and they were also up for best picture. So it’s fair to say that she is currently one of the best working directors in the business. I think the next decade will reward her with her first Oscar win in this category.
PEOPLE WHO WILL EARN THEIR FIRST NOMINATION
First Round: Michael B. Jordan
In all honesty, it’s sort of baffling that Michael B. Jordan doesn’t have an Oscar nomination already. Between Fruitvale Station, Creed, Black Panther, and Just Mercy, Jordan has proven he is one of the best talents working today (and that doesn’t even include his stellar television resume of Friday Night Lights and The Wire). I am incredibly confident that he will earn a nomination sooner as opposed to later.
Second Round: Donald Glover
This may be a bit of an outside the box pick, especially considering I locked Glover in for acting, when it’s just as plausible for him to earn a nomination for writing, best song, or even directing. He is that versatile and talented. It’s also slightly outside the box because he could decide he wants to spend the next decade just in tv and music. His filmography is limited (Solo, The Lion King), but his talent is there (an Emmy and Golden Globe winner for his show Atlanta). And realistically, I could have thrown a dart at a list of people on the show Atlanta and felt good about my chances that they would earn a nomination. But I’m taking a chance on Glover, because he hasn’t let me down yet.
Third Round: Emily Blunt
Emily Blunt is another who seems like she should already have a nomination by now. She stole scenes in The Devil Wears Prada, but the last decade is when she has really begun to shine, including roles in such a wide array of movies as The Adjustment Bureau, The Five-Year Engagement, Looper, Edge of Tomorrow, Into the Woods, Sicario, The Girl on the Train, A Quiet Place (with a sequel coming soon), and Mary Poppins Returns. She is a versatile performer, and I think she will soon be an Oscar nominee.
Fourth Round: Chadwick Boseman
Boseman is most likely best known for his work in the Marvel Cinematic Universe as Black Panther, but he has also tackled real life figures like Jackie Robinson, James Brown, and Thurgood Marshall, and those types of roles are often like catnip for Oscar voters. As his star continues to rise, I expect that he could get a nomination soon.
Fifth Round: Taron Egerton
Egerton is the reigning Golden Globe winner for Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy for his portrayal of Elton John in Rocketman, but became only the 3rd winner of that award this decade to not also earn an Academy Award nomination. Regardless, I think his future is bright, and he will continue to make movies for both the general population and awards circuits.
Sixth Round: Ryan Coogler (Directing)
It wasn’t an active decision to go all in on the Black Panther team, but between Jordan, Boseman, and now director Ryan Coogler, it’s looking like I got the Wakanda Forever squad. Seriously though, Coogler is a great director, and besides Black Panther, he was behind the camera for Fruitvale Station and Creed. He is a very talented man, who still has a lot of room to grow, and I think he will be nominated for sure in the next ten years as long as he continues to make excellent films. So far, he hasn’t given us any reasons to doubt.
So there you have it, my selections for our Oscar draft over the next ten years. We will be checking in every Oscar season to see how the rosters turn out. Until then, make sure you check out Jason’s roster, and feel free to let us know who you think will become first time winners and nominees over the next ten years!