Well everyone! The 96th Oscars are here, which here at Reel Heels means it’s time for our annual predictions of who will take home Oscar gold! Below are my predictions for every category (along with my favorite in each category), so let’s go ahead and get started!
Animated Feature Film
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We kick off our predictions with one of the most fun categories every year, and this year features some really amazing nominees. Robot Dreams is a dialogue-free tale about a dog and a robot becoming best friends, but after circumstances separate them, they dream of their reunion. Elemental is the latest from Pixar and sees a world where the four basic elements (fire, water, earth, air) coexist, and we focus on a pair of star crossed lovers who are made of fire and water. Nimona is a mixture of medieval culture and future technology and focuses on a knight and a shapeshifter trying to figure out who caused the death of the queen in a fun action-packed tale. The Boy and the Heron comes from Studio Ghibli and tells a story of a young boy who lost his mother during WWII who enters a fantasy world full of talking creatures that allows him to spend time with various family members across the ages. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse reunites audiences with Miles Morales as he continues to grow into the mantle of Spider-Man, but he must not only deal with a new supervillain, but also with the expectations of those around him for what it means to be Spider-Man. There are some great choices here, and some might win in other years, but I expect, like the first installment did, Spider-Verse is going to win this one with it’s absolutely breathtaking animation.
Prediction: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Personal favorite: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Animated Short Film
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The animated short category is always a favorite of mine because I love seeing the different styles of animation and the different types of stories that they tell, and this year is no exception. War is Over! is inspired by the music of John Lennon and Yoko Ono, telling a story of soldiers on opposite sides of a war at Christmas time finding common ground. Our Uniform focuses on how clothes tell their own story about a person or their background by highlighting female students in Iran. Letter to a Pig is about a Holocaust survivor telling his story, which leads to a girl having a dream all about trauma and how we perceive those around us. Pachyderme is about a girl visiting her grandparents in the summer and the heartbreaking events that occur on that trip. Ninety-Five Senses is about a man recounting the events of his life, using sense memory to help express different moments that made him who he is. This is one of the categories where I’m the least certain of a winner this year, because it really could go any number of ways, but I’m giving Letter to a Pig the edge over Pachyderme and Ninety-Five Senses.
Prediction: Letter to a Pig
Personal favorite: Ninety-Five Senses
Cinematography
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Cinematography features some great choices for some of the most beautifully shot films of the year, but something I found interesting is the majority this year feature large sequences in black and white. Oppenheimer uses black and white for the “objective” events and color for the “subjective” events and the shot composition is exquisite. Maestro uses black and white for the earlier portions of Leonard Bernstein’s life before switching to color and has some breathtaking camera work. El Conde is entirely in black and white, and the shots work to help bring this unique vampire story to life. Poor Things uses black and white for the early parts of Bella’s journey, while also using techniques like fish eye lenses to help the film’s off-balance story. Killers of the Flower Moon lets the camera be more naturalistic but also uses it to help sell the menace of certain characters. This category has many worthy choices, but I think this goes to Oppenheimer.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Personal favorite: Oppenheimer
Costume Design
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These nominees represent some of the best costumes in film this year, and there are many styles to choose from. Whether it’s the styles of the French revolution and beyond in Napoleon, the WWII era clothing in Oppenheimer, or the traditional Osage clothing mixing with the 1920’s styles in Killers of the Flower Moon, there were some great costumes this year. However, I think this race comes down to Poor Things with some truly unique costume pieces and the fashion icon for girls everywhere, Barbie. Ultimately, I expect Barbie to take this one.
Prediction: Barbie
Personal favorite: Barbie
Documentary Feature Film
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There were some amazing documentary features to come out this year, encompassing some very captivating stories. Bobi Wine: The People’s President is about Ugandan musician Bobi Wine as he runs for president against a dictator in all but name, and Bobi’s fight for equality and justice in Uganda. The Eternal Memory tells the story of Chilean journalist Augusto Gongora and his wife Paulina Urrutia as Augusto struggles with Alzheimer’s. Four Daughters is about a mother in Tunisia sharing the story of raising her four daughters as two of them become religious extremists, and uses a mixture of her two remaining daughters and actresses to recreate key points in the family’s history. To Kill a Tiger follows a father in India seeking justice after the gang rape of his 13 year old daughter, despite the customs of his village saying that she should marry one of her attackers. 20 Days in Mariupol gives a first hand account of the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the filmmakers are on the ground while Russia attacks the city, and we see the brutality of war up close. These films all tell captivating, human stories, but I think ultimately 20 Days in Mariupol will win this category.
Prediction: 20 Days in Mariupol
Personal favorite: (tie) 20 Days in Mariupol/Bobi Wine: The People’s President
Documentary Short Film
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This year’s documentary shorts included a variety of very entertaining stories, spanning a wide array of subjects. The Barber of Little Rock is about wealth inequality in America (especially regarding the African-American population) and one man’s goal to help his community thrive. Island In Between is about historical tensions between China and Taiwan but specifically about an island that stands between them and the role it has played in the conflict. The Last Repair Shop is about a California school district providing musical instruments to students and the lives of the people who keep those instruments in working order. Nai Nai & Wai Po tells the story of the documentarian’s maternal and paternal grandmothers going about their day to day lives. The ABC’s of Book Banning highlights how some groups are trying to ban books from schools that focus on civil rights, LGBTQ+ rights, and women’s rights, while also having children from the school districts weigh in on these books and if they feel they are appropriate for them. I thought this was a very strong group, and it would be tough to pick just one, but I feel The ABC’s of Book Banning will take this category.
Prediction: The ABC’s of Book Banning
Personal favorite: (tie) The ABC’s of Book Banning/Nai Nai & Wai Po
Editing
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Editing is always an important part of films, and these nominees showcase some great examples of the best of the year. The Holdovers uses editing to feel like a film made during the time it was set, while Killers of the Flower Moon features some of the best transitions in Scorsese’s filmography. Anatomy of a Fall uses editing to further drive the mystery of the plot. Oppenheimer goes seamlessly between time periods and black and white to color through its edits. Poor Things lets the editing serve the surreal nature of the images. All are worthy contenders, but I’m going to go with Oppenheimer for this one.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Personal favorite: Oppenheimer
International Feature Film
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As always, the International feature category showcases some of the best films from around the world, and this year’s choices are as varied as they are terrific. The Teachers’ Lounge is about a well-intentioned teacher whose actions to try to stop a string of thefts at the school lead to a bright student no longer trusting her. Society of the Snow tells the true story of the Uruguayan rugby team that’s plane crashed in the Andes mountains, and their struggle to survive for months with no food, shelter, or supplies as search efforts prove futile. Io Capitano follows two teenage boys in their journey to escape poverty in Senegal by making the treacherous journey to Italy, and the numerous life threatening obstacles that stand in their way. Perfect Days is a slice of life movie, focused on a man’s routine as a city toilet cleaner in Tokyo and the various people he encounters through his work, his family, and his personal life. The Zone of Interest tells the story of Rudolf Hoss and his family as they go about their lives while Hoss works as the commandant at Auschwitz. These films are all worthy of praise, but usually when one is nominated here and for Best Picture, the odds are in its favor to win this category. I’m picking The Zone of Interest to win here.
Prediction: The Zone of Interest
Personal favorite: (tie) The Zone of Interest/Perfect Days
Live Action Short
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The live action shorts provided a great variety of stories, encompassing all sorts of styles and emotions. The After sees David Oyelowo play a man who must figure out how to go on living after losing his wife and daughter in a tragic accident. Red, White and Blue stars Brittany Snow as a waitress dealing with an unplanned pregnancy in a state where abortions are no longer legal. Knight of Fortune is about two men meeting in a morgue after the losses of their wives and forming an unlikely bond. Invincible is about a young boy in a juvenile detention center struggling with his emotions and the expectations of the world around him. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar is a star-studded Wes Anderson adaptation of a Roald Dahl story about a man who learns how to see without using his eyes. Any of them would be worthy winners, but I expect that Wes Anderson finally wins an Oscar with The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar.
Prediction: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Personal favorite: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Makeup and Hairstyling
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Makeup and Hairstyling is always an interesting category to watch, because it’s a vital part of filmmaking to help transform performers into their characters, and this year’s group is no exception. Golda sees Helen Mirren become unrecognizable as Golda Meir, while Society of the Snow features more subtle transformations of the effects of surviving for extended periods in the snowy Andes mountains. Poor Things uses makeup to totally reconfigure Willem Dafoe’s facial features. Maestro sees Bradley Cooper lose himself as Leonard Bernstein, and hair and makeup definitely helped with that. Oppenheimer helped Cillian Murphy and the rest of the cast realistically portray their across multiple points in life. All in all, there are some great choices, but I think the most talked about makeup film of the year takes this, and that’s Maestro.
Prediction: Maestro
Personal favorite: Poor Things
Music (Original Score)
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A film’s score can make or break the movie, and these scores all definitely helped convey the emotion and power of the scenes we were watching. Oppenheimer made us live the drama and excitement through score, and Poor Things helped reinforce the themes of the film through music. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny saw not only Harrison Ford suiting up as the iconic archeologist, but also John Williams returning to one of his most famous themes. American Fiction and Killers of the Flower Moon both used musical influences from the communities they were portraying to the fullest impact. Overall, some great ones to choose from, but once again, I’m riding with Oppenheimer.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Personal favorite: Oppenheimer
Music (Original Song)
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This year’s choices for best song feature a variety of musical styles, but each is deserving of their spot in their own way. The Fire Inside plays over the credits of Flamin’ Hot, and fits perfectly with a movie about the invention of Flamin’ Hot Cheetos. It Never Went Away is a new song from Jon Batiste in the documentary American Symphony, which is about his musical career and life. Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People) punctuates the ending of Killers of the Flower Moon and ties the ending of the story to present day. Barbie has two songs nominated, and could have had more, but both songs present are worthy inclusions, from Billie Eilish’s beautifully haunting What Was I Made For? in the film’s climax to Ryan Gosling leading an epic musical number with all the Ken’s in I’m Just Ken. I think the voters are definitely going with a Barbie choice here, and while I’m a sucker personally for a big fun musical number like last year’s winner from RRR, I think this year the voters go with the more emotionally driven What Was I Made For?
Prediction: What Was I Made For?, Barbie
Personal favorite: I’m Just Ken, Barbie
Production Design
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This is one of the toughest production design groups from top to bottom that I can recall. Napoleon showcases the elegant palaces of 19th century France, and Oppenheimer crosses from halls of academia to the desert laboratories of Los Alamos. Poor Things features so many unique locations that are truly breathtaking, and Killers of the Flower Moon fully immerses the viewer in 1920’s Oklahoma. Most of these would be the front runner in another year, but I think the bright and colorful Barbieland shown in Barbie will see a win for this year’s largest film.
Prediction: Barbie
Personal favorite: Barbie
Sound
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Sound is always an interesting category, because there are so many things that go into making a movie have great sound, and our nominees all use sound to help enhance the viewing experience. The Creator uses sound to make the futuristic weapons and robots come to life. Maestro uses sound to create symphonies for the viewer, just like the titular character. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One ratchets up the tension of the death defying stunts through sound. Oppenheimer uses sound to make the viewer feel like they are witnessing a nuclear bomb detonate for the first time. The Zone of Interest uses sound to help the viewer imagine the unimaginable horrors of the Holocaust as the characters treat those sounds as white noise. I think Oppenheimer will take this one, but if it doesn’t, Zone of Interest is the one to keep an eye on.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Personal favorite: Oppenheimer
Visual Effects
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Visual effects is often seen as a category for the blockbuster movies, and while that may be somewhat true, the choices here all feature some great work in that realm. The Creator had some of the best visuals this year with the humanoid robots and spaceships we see. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One showcased visual effects to help create things like the entity and also enhancing the motorcycle jump that Tom Cruise makes. Napoleon saw the titular character firing cannons at the pyramids through visual effects. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 used visual effects masterfully once again for Rocket Racoon and Groot, but there were also effects to help boost the action and conclude one of the best trilogies in recent memory. Godzilla Minus One used visual effects to make one of the best Godzilla movies of all time and create some of the most awesome monster destruction scenes ever put to screen (and on a shoe-string budget relatively speaking). While I do love Guardians and Rocket, I think the Cinderella story of the making of Godzilla Minus One gives it a boost here, and I think it wins.
Prediction: Godzilla Minus One
Personal favorite: (tie) Godzilla Minus One/Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
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There are some brilliant nominees in this category (and some debate if one nominee belonged here or in original screenplay), all with wonderful stories to tell. American Fiction is a razor sharp satire that deals with racial identity and giving the masses what (they think that) they want in an inauthentic “authentic” story. Oppenheimer adapts a book about the life of J. Robert Oppenheimer, and the screenplay blends parallel stories and timelines in a way that seems second nature to Christopher Nolan at this point. Poor Things takes familiar sci-fi tropes and turns them into a story about a woman forging her identity and place in the world, released from any preconceived notions of society. The Zone of Interest captures the banality of day to day life and juxtaposes it with historical atrocities while also relaying it to our present day. Barbie took the well known toy line and created a fantastical world for Barbie and Ken and all their friends to inhabit before coming into the real world. This category could be the real Barbenheimer show down of the night, as many feel Greta Gerwig was snubbed in the director category, I could see her winning for screenplay. However, in what is a common theme of these predictions, I think Oppenheimer will win.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Personal favorite: Barbie
Writing (Original Screenplay)
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The original screenplay nominees are some wonderful scripts also, just like their adapted counterparts. In Maestro, we see Leonard Bernstein’s life from the early days of conducting, through his various career successes and struggles in his personal life. May December tells a story of a teacher and student that fell in love through the lens of an actress who is trying to learn about their relationship as she prepares to play the teacher in a film, and the lengths she will go to as she tries to embody this person on screen. Anatomy of a Fall begins with a dead body and takes the audience along for a ride as we all try to figure out if this man fell or was pushed. Past Lives is about two childhood best friends, who were separated when one moved to America, reunite after 24 years and consider where they are now and where they would have been if they never had that separation. The Holdovers tells the story of a cranky teacher, a cafeteria worker, and a student who spend the holidays together because the boy’s family didn’t pick him up from the boarding school, and the unlikely bond that the three of them form. All in all, there are some really great screenplays here, but I think the ambiguity throughout Anatomy of a Fall carries it to victory (though I would be equally pleased if The Holdovers were to win here).
Prediction: Anatomy of a Fall
Personal favorite: (tie) Anatomy of a Fall/The Holdovers
Actress in a Supporting Role
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The five performers nominated for Supporting Actress this year gave some incredible performances, and are rightly being celebrated here. America Ferrara played a role that encompassed humor and heart, while delivering one of the most memorable monologues in recent film history in Barbie. Emily Blunt plays Katherine Oppenheimer as both a foil and friend to her husband, but her performance during the deposition scenes are a true powerhouse showcase. Danielle Brooks reprises her Tony-nominated performance as Sofia in The Color Purple, and she was equally worthy of her nomination here, for both her incredible vocals but also the depth she gives as this character. Jodie Foster is a two time Oscar winner, but in her first nomination since 1994, she shines as swim coach and best friend to the titular character in Nyad. Da’Vine Joy Randolph though is likely one of the locks of the night for her performance in The Holdovers. She plays a woman who recently lost her son in Vietnam and her struggle through the Christmas holidays without him, but she never loses her humanity or her caring nature as she looks after Paul Giamatti and Dominic Sessa and forms a new family of sorts. It’s a magnificent performance (as are the other nominees) and it will rightly be celebrated with an Oscar win.
Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Personal favorite: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Actor in a Supporting Role
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This is one of the most stacked Supporting Actor categories that I can recall, as each one could win in a different year. Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction plays the main character’s estranged brother who knows that his lifestyle choices have alienated him from the rest of the family, yet still cares to make sure that they are taken care of and live the life that makes them happiest. Mark Ruffalo plays an utter cad in Poor Things, and imbues him with hypocrisy, jealously, and impotence in all facets of his existence to quite hilarious effect. Ryan Gosling gives one of the best comedic performances of his career as Ken in Barbie, with line deliveries that had me howling with laughter from start to finish. Robert DeNiro showed in Killers of the Flower Moon that he is still one of the greatest actors to ever live, playing a character that is so amazingly evil while also being the living definition of a wolf in sheep’s clothing. Robert Downey, Jr. plays Lewis Strauss in Oppenheimer like he’s the Salieri to Oppenheimer’s Mozart, effectively shedding his typical snarky persona into something more terrifying and vulnerable than we’ve seen from him in quite some time. I don’t envy the voters as these are all worthy choices, but I think that RDJ enters the winner’s circle for his 3rd Oscar nomination.
Prediction: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
Personal favorite: (tie) Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer/Ryan Gosling, Barbie/Robert DeNiro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Actress in a Leading Role
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This year’s choices for Leading Actress gave some of the best performances of the year, and that could also be said for a handful of ladies who were left outside the category as well as this category featured one of the most prominent omissions of the year. But, we are here to discuss the five nominated women, so let’s do that! Carey Mulligan earned her 3rd nomination for her work in Maestro as Felicia Bernstein, and she delivers a nuanced performance worthy of praise. Annette Bening scored her 5th nomination as professional marathon swimmer Diana Nyad (the titular role) as she attempts to become the first person to ever swim from Cuba to Florida in a compelling true life sports drama. Sandra Huller earned a nomination for her excellent work in Anatomy of a Fall as a woman who is on trial for the death of her husband, and her performance keeps the audience guessing as to whether or not she is actually innocent of this crime. Emma Stone looks for her second Oscar win with her performance as Bella Baxter in Poor Things, and she showcases her skills taking Bella on a journey from mental infancy to womanhood, with scenes that will make you laugh and cry. Lily Gladstone is magnificent as Mollie Burkhart in Killers of the Flower Moon as she is able to command the film with just a look and make the audience feel the absolute devastation her character is going through when she screams. This will be the acting race that is the most contested as most think it’s a toss up between Stone and Gladstone, but I’m going with Gladstone here.
Prediction: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Personal favorite: (tie) Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon/Emma Stone, Poor Things
Actor in a Leading Role
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The Lead Actor nominees feature some of my favorite actors getting long overdue award recognition for some of the best performances of their great careers. Colman Domingo earned a nomination for his terrific turn as civil rights leader Bayard Rustin, a man who dedicated his life to equality, not only for African Americans, but also for members of the LGBTQ+ community like himself. Jeffrey Wright is wonderful in American Fiction, with some amazing comedic timing and delivery, but also with an ability to bring emotional weight to a character who contemplates what it means to be successful at the cost of self. Bradley Cooper continues his search for Oscar gold as Leonard Bernstein in Maestro, and truly dedicated himself to capturing Bernstein’s look and mannerisms. Paul Giamatti has been one of the most underrated actors for some time, and he gives perhaps the best performance of his career with The Holdovers, giving us some of the funniest dialogue in recent memory while also being able to move the audience to tears over the character’s heartbreak. Cillian Murphy has collaborated with Christopher Nolan many times before, and that familiarity may have led him to be able to tap into something truly special with his performance as Oppenheimer, which just blew me away with how amazingly he captured all the facets of what made Oppenheimer the complicated man he was. I think Murphy and Giamatti are the front runners here, but I think Murphy will end up taking this one over the finish line.
Prediction: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Personal favorite: (tie) Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer/Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Directing
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Another year of a superb group of directors receiving nominations for Best Director (though there is at least one notable omission). Justine Triet showed some major skills in Anatomy of a Fall, getting amazing performances out of the whole cast (including Messi the dog), but also letting the camera serve the story. Jonathan Glazer directed The Zone of Interest with laser focus and discipline, keeping the fixation on the family while the noise beyond the wall is there as a constant reminder of what we are really seeing. Yorgos Lanthimos varies scene tempo and style in Poor Things to convey the film’s frenetic nature and keep viewers off-balance. Martin Scorsese shows once again why he is arguably the GOAT director, as he moves into 2nd all time with 10 nominations and becomes the oldest nominee in this category with Killers of the Flower Moon. However, in another category that feels like a lock, I think Christopher Nolan finally breaks through and wins for his work on Oppenheimer, which may well be the best film in his already remarkable filmography.
Prediction: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Personal favorite: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Best Picture
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And now we come to the big one, the most coveted award of the night, Best Picture. This year’s group of 10 nominees is very strong, with many being movies I see myself watching for many years to come. There’s American Fiction, a satire as funny as it is devastatingly poignant. Anatomy of a Fall, a movie that begs for rewatches as viewers look for clues to determine what really happened that fateful day. Barbie, a movie that resonated worldwide for its comedy and heart, proving that Barbie is still a role model to women (and men) everywhere. The Holdovers, a movie that is destined to become the first Christmas classic in over 20 years and shows that blood isn’t the only thing that makes a family. Killers of the Flower Moon, the latest from a legendary director who once again shows that the idea of the American Dream at any cost always comes with a price. Maestro, a continuation of Bradley Cooper honing his skills as a multihyphenate, as he once again pours himself entirely in a film. Oppenheimer, the latest from arguably the greatest director working today as he presents the story of a man who shaped (for better and worse) the landscape of the 20th century world and beyond. Past Lives, a story about who we were, we are, and are destined to become, and how those lives reconcile with the people who knew us at various stages in our journeys. Poor Things, a twisted fairy tale that is one woman’s journey to empowerment and enlightenment as she experiences the highs and lows that life has to offer. The Zone of Interest, a devastating look at how becoming numb to horror leads to complicity in those horrors. This is certainly a worthy group, but there can only be one film that walks away with the golden statue. And the Oscar goes to…
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Personal favorite: Oppenheimer
There you have it, my predictions for all 23 categories for this year. What movies do you think will win? What movies should win? Let us know! And make sure to check out Jason’s predictions as well!