Hello everyone! The Academy Awards are this Sunday, so with that in mind, it’s time for our annual predictions here at Reel Heels! So here are mine! I will be predicting all the categories, but only doing write-ups for the acting, writing, and directing categories, along with Animated Feature and Best Picture. So, let’s get to it!
- CINEMATOGRAPHY: 1917
- COSTUME DESIGN: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Honeyland
- DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
- EDITING: Ford v Ferrari
- INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: Parasite
- MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Joker
- MUSIC (SCORE): Joker
- MUSIC (SONG): “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II
- PRODUCTION DESIGN: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- SHORT FILM (ANIMATED): Hair Love
- SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION): Nefta Football Club
- SOUND EDITING: Ford v Ferrari
- SOUND MIXING: 1917
- VISUAL EFFECTS: Avengers: Endgame
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This is a strong category, with several highly entertaining unique stories being told among the nominees. I would love to see Knives Out take this since it’s the only category it was nominated in, but I imagine that it would be quite the long shot to pull off a victory here. I don’t see Marriage Story or 1917 taking this, so I imagine it’s going to come down to Parasite and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Parasite took the BAFTA (which has only accurately predicted 2 of the past 9) and WGA (though Tarantino isn’t a member of the WGA so OUATIH wasn’t eligible) but Once Upon a Time won the Golden Globe, which has been the indicator 5 of the past 9. I’m going with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
No disrespect to The Irishman, The Two Popes, and Joker, but this race is really seeming to come down to Little Women and Jojo Rabbit. There is a solid chance that the Academy will want to reward Greta Gerwig’s script, considering the backlash to her snub for directing, but I think considering the fact that Taika Waititi’s WWII satire won the WGA and BAFTA over Gerwig that it’s a pretty safe bet that he will also take home the Oscar. Jojo Rabbit is my prediction.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
This is actually a challenging category because there were already a few surprises among the nominations that snubbed Disney (Hello, Frozen II and the Lion King) so I’m hesitant to select Pixar and just leave it be. I mean, Missing Link won the Golden Globe, Klaus is gaining steam, and you can’t count out How to Train Your Dragon either. However, there has only been one year when Pixar had a nominee and didn’t win, so I’m letting it ride with Toy Story 4.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Aside from previous Academy Award winner Kathy Bates, this is a category full of talented women who are looking for their first chance at Oscar glory. Margot Robbie and Florence Pugh seem unlikely to snag this one given that I’m sure the Academy seems them as women with more nominations on the horizon. Scarlett Johansson gives a lovely performance in Jojo Rabbit, and I wouldn’t mind seeing her win, but I think Laura Dern has been the lock all season, and I see no reason to change that now. Laura Dern will take home the Oscar.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
In a reversal of the last category, all of the nominees except one are previous winners of Academy Awards. Al Pacino, Joe Pesci, Anthony Hopkins, and Tom Hanks have a combined five acting Oscars, but the most recent winner among them is Hanks for Forrest Gump at the 1995 ceremony, and all have very long droughts from their most recent nomination. However, they all have been trailing at the other award ceremonies, and I think Brad Pitt will win his long awaited Oscar for his role in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
These five nominees are all celebrated actors, but Leonardo Dicaprio is the only previous winner of this award. As strong as I think he is in this film, I think he won’t pull off a second win. Jonathan Pryce and Antonio Banderas are well respected actors who have long careers, but I don’t see either of them taking it. Adam Driver continues his incredible hot streak with his second nomination in as many years, but I think his bright future won’t include an Oscar just yet. I think that Joaquin Phoenix will earn his first Oscar and become the second actor to win this award for playing the Joker, joining Vito Corleone as the only character to strike Oscar gold twice.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
This category’s nominees are varied in the sense that they have unique Oscar history. Cynthia Erivo is a first time nominee, but as a Broadway veteran, she already has Emmy, Grammy, and Tony awards for her role in The Color Purple. Scarlett Johansson is in her first year as a nominee, but became the 12th person to be nominated for two acting performances in the same year (and first since Cate Blanchett in 2007). Saoirse Ronan is the youngest of the nominees, but is tied among this group for most career nominations with four (Including this year). Charlize Theron and Renee Zellweger will both be seeking their second Oscars, and both have gone over 15 years since their previous win. Considering that Zellweger has won practically all the lead up awards, I think she wins here too.
DIRECTOR
Todd Phillips gets the “happy to be here” spot in this group of nominees, and considering his movie is an “homage” to Martin Scorsese’s films, it seems fair that Scorsese is sort of in that camp as well. This feels like a three man race between Bong Joon Ho, Sam Mendes, and Quentin Tarantino. For the first eleven months of 2019, it seemed like Tarantino would finally win his first best director Oscar, but he seems to be riding third among this group. Bong Joon Ho would certainly be a deserving winner, but I think Sam Mendes will take his second Academy Award in this category.
BEST PICTURE
This year featured nine films in this category and all have merit, but I think there are some we can go ahead and eliminate from contention. Since the Academy expanded this category in 2009, there has only been one out of ten Best Picture winners to win without a director nomination, so we say so long to Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, and Marriage Story. Since expansion, only two of the ten Best Picture winners also featured a win in a lead Actor or Actress category, so we can eliminate Joker also. Of the ten winners since expansion, all ten featured at least one acting nomination (with eight of ten featuring at least two), so we can eliminate Parasite and 1917 as well, which both have zero (11 films of the previous 91 winners have won without an acting nomination, but only four in the past 61 years, so it’s not a great percentage). This leaves The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as the last two standing. Looking at since expansion, the Golden Globe winner for Best Picture has won five out of ten. While that’s even odds, the fact that The Irishman hasn’t taken top honors at the Globes, BAFTAs, DGA, WGA, PGA, or SAG leads me to think it won’t take it here. I think even though he will be denied director, Quentin Tarantino‘s film will take the top spot, earning him his first Best Picture. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is your winner!
So, there you have it, my predictions for Oscar night 2020! What do you think will win? What should win? Let us know, and tune in Sunday to find out!